A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
