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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still